As the First World War made painfully clear, when politicians and generals lead nations into war, they almost invariably assume swift victory, and have a remarkably enduring tendency not to foresee problems that, in hindsight, seem obvious.

正如第一次世界大战令人痛苦地表明的那样，当政治家和将军们带领国家进入战争时，他们几乎总是假定会迅速取得胜利，而且有一种非常持久的倾向，即不会预见到事后看来显而易见的问题。